The Houthis have completed their takeover of Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, capturing the port city of Mocha and overrunning the strategic island of Mayyun (Perim) over the weekend. Houthi forces are now positioned just 20 kilometres from the African coast and essentially control the strategically significant Bab al-Mandeb strait, a chokepoint for Red Sea maritime traffic.

The strait handles roughly 12 percent of global trade, including 11 percent of maritime oil and 8 percent of liquefied natural gas (LNG). The Houthis’ ally, Iran, maintains control over the Strait of Hormuz, where around a fifth of the world’s energy supplies passed through before the United States and Israel’s war on Iran began on February 28. Houthi politburo member Hazem al-Assad insists that "freedom of navigation and international trade in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb are safe and orderly," but global shipping lines have reacted with extreme caution to recent developments in Yemen.

Maritime security expert Alexandru Cristian Hudisteanu noted that the Bab al-Mandeb strait is narrower than the Strait of Hormuz, making it easier for the Houthis to target ships. A video circulated showing a Houthi commander on the coast, stating that artillery could be positioned to strike targets in the waters off Yemen. Data from IMF PortWatch indicates a drop of between 50 percent and 55 percent in shipping volume and tonnage through the Red Sea between 2023 and 2025, when tensions in the Red Sea last escalated after Houthi attacks on shipping. Major shipping operators continue to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding more than 20 transit days and driving up global freight costs.

The European Union-led Operation Atalanta task force, which provides maritime security in the Red Sea, might also be too tied down by mission restrictions to act if another bout of attacks on Red Sea traffic broke out. Hudisteanu warned that the pivot of naval assets towards Bab al-Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz during the war on Iran has created security gaps off the coast of the Horn of Africa, with organised maritime crime groups taking advantage of the vacuum. "We have observed a resurgence of piracy, particularly along the Somali coast, which is linked to the redirection of international naval focus toward the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb during this multi-layered crisis," Hudisteanu said.

Despite the Houthis’ assurances that maritime traffic in the Red Sea will not be affected, Saudi-linked ships have been targeted by the group in recent weeks. Between November 2023 and mid-2025, the Houthis also attacked more than 100 commercial vessels in the Red Sea that it claimed were linked to Israel or its allies. The sharp decline in Red Sea transit affected Egypt’s economy, which relies heavily on Suez Canal tolls as a key source of foreign currency. Egypt lost approximately $7bn between 2023 and 2024, or about 60 percent of the Suez Canal’s revenues, according to official data.

Badr Hassan Al-Shafei, a professor of African studies and conflict resolution expert, said that Egypt demonstrated strategic restraint during this period, despite its losses. "Egypt follows a policy of distancing itself from military intervention in what is happening in Yemen specifically; and this position – as we know – is a fixed Egyptian position since the Gulf intervention in Yemen in 2015," Al-Shafei told Al Jazeera. "Despite the Houthis threatening navigation in the Red Sea through Bab al-Mandeb, intercepting ship operations, and firing some missiles towards Israel, Egypt did not intervene, although it lost a lot."